Forget "The Market Is Good." Here's What These 5 Numbers Actually Tell You

I hear it all the time. Someone reads a headline that says "the market is good" or "the market is cooling" and they come to me wanting to know what that actually means for their house. Here's the truth: those headlines don't tell you anything useful. What you really want answered is a lot simpler than a headline.

If I listed today, would my home sell quickly? Would buyers expect me to negotiate? Are prices still holding up in my neighborhood? Should I wait until next year?

Good news. You don't need to watch the market every single day to answer those questions. Five numbers tell most of the story. Together, they show you how competitive the market is, how buyers are behaving, and what that means for you if you own a home in the Inland Empire right now.

Here are the five data points I track constantly, straight from MLS, and why each one matters.

1. Inventory: What's for Sale Near You

Inventory is simply the total number of homes for sale in your area right now. That one number tells you who's holding the power at the negotiating table.

Low inventory means fewer choices for buyers, which means more competition for your home when you list it. High inventory means buyers have options, and you have to work harder to stand out.

So here's the question you need a clear answer to: is inventory in your neighborhood going up, down, or holding steady compared to last year? If it's rising, pricing strategy starts to matter a lot more, because buyers have more homes to compare yours against. If it's falling, the window to sell with less competition may be shorter than it looks.

Here's what I'm seeing across our market, single-family homes, as of July 2026:

• Riverside County active listings: 6,457, down 23.6% from 8,447 a year ago
• San Bernardino County active listings: 5,667, down 18.2% from 6,924 a year ago

Inventory has pulled back sharply across both counties this year. That's a real shift, and it's one more reason not to assume you have all the time in the world to decide.

2. Days on Market: How Fast Homes Are Actually Selling

Days on market measures how long a home sits before it goes under contract. Think of it as the market's report card on pricing.

A home that sits too long starts to carry a stigma. Buyers wonder what's wrong with it. The longer it sits, the more leverage shifts to the buyer's side of the table.

So ask yourself: are homes in your price range and neighborhood selling in days, or in weeks? If days on market is climbing, the market is telling sellers something about price. If it's short, well-priced homes are still moving fast. Knowing which category your home falls into before you list changes how you should approach pricing from day one.

Here's what I'm seeing:

• Riverside County median days active in MLS: 28 days, down from 31 a year ago
• San Bernardino County median days active in MLS: 22 days, down from 24 a year ago

Homes are actually moving a little faster than they were a year ago in both counties. That's not a market where you can afford to overprice and "see what happens."

3. Percent of Original Price Received: What Buyers Are Actually Paying

This one tells you how close sellers are landing to their original asking price. When this number falls, it means more sellers are cutting price and chasing the market down. When it climbs, it means well-priced homes are holding their number, and buyers aren't finding much room to negotiate.

So ask: are sellers in your zip code getting close to their asking price, or are they getting chased down with reductions?

Here's what I'm seeing:

• Riverside County: sellers received 99.0% of original list price on average, up from 98.1% a year ago
• San Bernardino County: sellers received 99.7% of original list price on average, up from 98.8% a year ago

That's actually the opposite of what a lot of headlines would have you believe. Sellers here are landing closer to their number than they were last summer, not further away. Homes priced correctly from the start are holding steady. Homes that get overpriced and chased down in price still take longer and net less, that part never changes.

4. Months of Supply: The Number That Tells You Whose Market It Is

Months of supply measures how long it would take to sell every home currently on the market if no new listings came on. It's the clearest single signal of market balance we have.

Under 3 months is a seller's market. 3 to 6 months is balanced. Over 6 months is a buyer's market.

Here's what you need to know: where does your local market sit right now, and which direction is it trending? This number can move fast, and homeowners who understand that movement price and time their move accordingly. The ones who don't are usually the ones taking price cuts later.

Here's what I'm seeing:

• Riverside County: 3.7 months, down from 4.9 a year ago
• San Bernardino County: 4.7 months, down from 5.7 a year ago

Both counties are trending toward tighter supply. Riverside is now knocking on the door of seller's market territory. That's a meaningfully different position than a year ago, and it's worth knowing before you assume you're negotiating from a weak spot.

5. Mortgage Rates: The Number That Affects You Too

Mortgage rates affect sellers just as much as buyers. Every point rates move changes how many qualified buyers can afford your home at your target price.

A buyer who could afford your home at 6.5% may not qualify at 7.5%. That directly shrinks your buyer pool before your home even hits the market.

Here's the question that demands a clear answer: at today's rate, how many buyers in your market can realistically afford a home at your price point?

Rates also affect your next move. If you have a rate locked in below where rates sit today, deciding to sell isn't just about what your home is worth. It's about what payment you'd be moving into. That math is worth walking through with real numbers before you decide anything.

As of now, the weekly average rate for a 30-year mortgage sits at 6.66%, up from last week's average of 6.58%, and about where it stood a year ago, when rates averaged 6.63%.

Understanding these five numbers, and where they stand for your specific address, is what lets you act with confidence instead of guessing off a headline. If you want me to run these numbers for your exact neighborhood, reach out and let's talk it through.